Sophomore Jinx bitten the leafs?

Top left, injured Defenceman Mike Van Ryn; top right, Mikhail Grabovski (C), bottom left, John Mitchell (C), bottom right, Luke Schenn(D) .

The 20092010 Season hasn't started out as a kind season for the leafs. Within the first month, both main roster goaltenders have gone down with injuries. Oft-injured Defenceman Van Ryn is having season ending surgery, and Last year's rookie prospects (Graboski, Mitchell, & Schenn) don't appear to be living up to expectations. Injuries aside, should we expect more from the Leaf Rookies? Have they been bitten by the Sophomore jinx?

The Sophmore Jinx is not exclusive to hockey. All professional sports refer to this strange phenomena. Why is it that a year after a promising rookie season, that a lot of pro athletes appear to suffer from a down year? Is it all psychological? Maybe it's because expectations for rookies are set too high? Are opposing players more ready for these initially unknown players? Could it be that the Rookie Hazings take such a toll on players, that the next season, played suffers tremendously? What if the Sophomore Jinx was nothing at all, and just a fabrication to use as a talking point?

In the 2005/6 season Ovechkin scoed 52 goals and in 2006/7 he scored 46.

I decided to do a bit of fact digging of my own to see whether the Sophomore Jinx could be explained. For my analysis, I decided to pick the top 10 goal scorers of the 2008-2009 season, and examine their progress from rookie to Sophomore. The top 10 are as follows: Ovechkin, Carter, Parise, Kocalchuck, Nash, E. Staal, Hossa, Vanek, Cammalleri & Heatley.

Of the top 10 scorers in 2008-2009, only two suffered a slight drop in scoring from rookie to sophomore seasons. The rest had moderate to significant increases. Although my system is not at all scientific, I doubt that there is a direct correlation between a positive rookie season performance, and a poor sophomore performance.

In the 2005/6 season Carter scored 23 goals and dropped to 14 in his sophomore year.

My belief is that when you give something a name, people latch on to it with emotion. Take for instance the H1N1 Flu. H1N1 is being dubbed as a Killer of women in their thirties, with a high mortality rate. The facts are that all Flu cases appear to affect young adults between 20-40 years of age. H1n1 has a mortality rate of between 0.007% to 0.045%, while seasonal flue has a death rate of 0.1%.

Although Schenn, Grabovski and Mitchell are not blowing apart their performance from last season, they're only 7 games in, and play for a winless team. Let's hold off on making a hoopla about the Sophomore Jinx. Let's let the guys play without the added stress and psychological impact. Things will happen; every season has it's ups and downs.